Happy Derby Day!

Welcome to the First Saturday in May! Sit back, throw some daisies in your hat and enjoy a mint julip on me, while I gaze into my crystal ball and tell you who the winner will be!

For the record, in the past five years I have picked at least one horse in the top three. Two times I picked two horses in the top three and twice I picked the winner, so if you're betting, then listen very carefully...

I have no clue.

Did you hear that? Please be certain that you did, for this year's Derby is a great big WHO KNOWS? to everyone, even the top handicappers are at a loss. The reason for the confusion, as I have alluded to in a prior post, is that so many of the horses in this year's Derby trained in very non-traditional ways. You see, it's been *fact* that Derby winners must have raced as two year olds and must at the least have had three races this year, one in the last 4 weeks.

So that only leaves about three horses out of twenty who fit the bill.

For the record, though, last year's winner, Barbaro, hadn't raced in 6 weeks, so maybe times are changing...

Ok, so out the window goes all conventional wisdom. I'm only picking based purely on gut feeling - ready?

The Horsewoman's Top Three (in no particular order):
1) Hard Spun - This little colt has the look and feel of one of my all time favorite horses, Afleet Alex. He's small and compact and appears highly intelligent and very spunky. He's super fast, there's no doubts about that, and he's only lost one race so far - in that race, he lost not by a nose or anything like that. No, he just decided he wasn't interested in running that day and loped home almost last. After that, he reeled off two more wins. The negative? He likes to run in the front, and there's almost always someone who wants to try to sprint for the mile and quarter of the Derby - it never works - but if he gets caught up in a sprint race, he'll burn out before the finish.

2) Street Sense - This one blew last year's Breeder's Cup contestants away by ten lengths. He came out of nowhere and no one could figure him out - if he was for real or not. Well, this year he's come back and shown that he is for real, winning two races and finishing second by a nose in his third. Furthermore, the folks who hang out at Churchill Downs are saying his morning training sessions are better than anyone elses. The negative? It's the Kentucky Derby and there are 20 horses stampeding around a dirt track - anything can happen.

3) Scat Daddy - Consistantly a winner or in the money. Tough, fast, all the right breeding. He's the kind of horse who feels like he's getting better and better as well as the kind of horse who looks like he's always needing just a little more track to really explode. What I mean is that he will keep running when others get tired. The negative? He's just been in the shadows all year long, no one really knows what he's capable of, so it's everyone's guessing.

The Horsewoman's Feel-Good Picks
1) Curlin - A beautiful, perfect horse who's never been defeated and won all his races by a combined 26 lengths. I want to believe he's the super horse that he appears to be (he's the Derby favorite), but I'm scared he's going to be swamped by the sheer magnitude of the race - the inexperience might get to him. If it doesn't, well then, here's your winner, cause this horse wears a cape.

2) Storm in May - This horse has run something like 14 races in his baby three years of life. He's won four of them and only finished out of the money once. How can you not like a horse who works this hard? The problem is, he's really not all that talented, he just loves running.

3) No Biz Like Show Biz - This is probably the most beautiful horse in the race. He's huge and imposing and looks like the god of horses. He's also trained by the man who trained Funny Cide, Barclay Tagg. Barclay Tagg is one of those grumpy horsemen who hate the media and never say a word - except he's saying he has the Derby winner. That's quite a statement from a man who never talks. It definately makes you sit up and pay attention. And he's got a good record, finishing either first or second in all his races (except one weird race where horses were running in to each other - he finished third - but that totally doesn't count.)

And now that I've picked them for you, let me say, if I was addicted to gambling, I still would be too scared to put on money on this one. ANY of the 20 horses running could win it.

Good luck!

posted by Headless-in-GR @ 5/05/2007 10:02:00 AM