My Old Kentucky Home

I know. You've all been waiting...

It's almost April and I still haven't told you who will win the Kentucky Derby!

Well, I guess it's time - but before we start, here's your annual review of facts concerning the Kentucky Derby and the Triple Crown.

1) The Kentucky Derby, run the first Saturday in May, is the first leg of the Triple Crown.
2) The Triple Crown consists of the Kentucky Derby, Preakness, and the Belmont.
3) Only three-year-olds run in the Triple Crown races.
4) All thoroughbred racers have the same birthday - January 1st. So, if a baby was born December 31st, he or she would be (according to the rules) one year old on the same day the were one day old - January 1st.

Ok, here we go...

First, Brother Derek was my favorite two-year-old last year. He was fourth in the Breeder's Cup, but has since won everything he's started in. He's beautiful and classy and a fighter. BUT...

He always goes to the lead, and this year EVERYONE is going to the lead. So, in this year's Derby, Brother Derek will be one of fourteen horses (I'm not kidding) fighting for the 1st position all the way around the track. Maybe he's just that tough...but somebody is going get really tired.

Final analysis: I love him, but I think (at least at this point) that he's going get caught in a speed dual early on and tire himself out. Here's hoping not all of those speed horses make it to the Derby.



Next there is a fun little horse named Lawyer Ron. When you watch this guy run, you get the impression that he is having the best time of his life. He's got this great, springy step and just wins and wins and wins without looking like he's trying. He also has shown that he is able to lay off the pace and run them down in the stretch. Really beautiful... You can watch him run the Arkansas Derby this coming Saturday if you're interested.

The draw back for Lawyer Ron is that even though he can run off the pace, he still seems to like being closer to the lead, rather than waiting farther back. The hypothetical speed dual could still take him out - as it did last year for Afleet Alex.

Final Analysis: He's one of my two Derby horse.

Jazil is the horse everyone's forgotten. In fact, it's so hard to find information on him, that I don't even know anything about him EXCEPT...

Except what I saw in the Wood Memorial last Saturday.

He lost. Came in second to a horse named Bob & John, who some people believe is the horse to beat in Kentucky. I don't. But that's not the point. I saw a horse name Jazil closing like a freight train, plowing through the mud and blowing past everyone - including Bob & John - except they had already past the finish line at that point. I can't help it. I'm biased to horses that come off the pace, and in this year's Derby? Jazil is the only I've seen who can do it. The Wood was 1 1/8 mile. The Derby 1 1/4. Translation = Jazil would have had another 1/8 of mile if it had been the Derby.

I don't know anything other than what I saw. And I have to tell you, nobody else is talking about him, in fact the picture to the left is the only picture I can find of him - and he's the horse closest to the camara. All you can see is his neck and head? So what's the deal? Maybe it was a fluke? Nah...it wasn't. I don't care what they (don't) say.

Final Analysis: He'll be coming home the first Saturday in May and that makes him the second of my Derby winner picks along with Lawyer Ron.



Private Vow was a beautiful two-year-old who has had some health problems this year. He had a terrible last race, but will try again against Lawyer Ron in the Arkansas Derby. If he's on form, he'll hit the board.

Private Vow's drawback is, of course, he's health issues and the fact that these issues have gotten in the way of him getting more prep races in.

Final Analysis: Beautiful horse - but he's running out of time. This Saturday will make it or break it.

Sharp Humor is a half brother to Funny Cide, the winner of the Kentucky Derby three years ago. And, like Funny Cide, Sharp Humor likes the front and is tough, tough, tough to get by. He's got a ton of guts and every race he's run has been a duel down to the wire, so he's a seasoned warrior too.

Drawbacks are that, quite frankly, he may not be as talented as some of the others. In otherwords, he wins purely because he wants to, but the Derby will be full of really talented horses, so...

Final Analysis: If he's any were near the front when they head for home, then watch him. But he'll probably get cooked (and do the cooking) in my hypothetical speed dual.

Barbaro beat Sharp Humor by half a length in the Florida Derby (dueling right down to the wire). Barbaro is undefeated, but very lightly raced, and spent most of his time running on the grass, not the dirt. Lots of people like him...

Drawback: I think he needs more races in him before the Derby. And, he worked hard to beat Sharp Humor, who (as I've said) is a nice horse, but maybe not that talented.

Final Analysis: He may be great. I just don't feel it.

Discreet Cat is still hanging out in the UAE. I don't think he's coming. And, even if he came now, I think he would need more time to adjust. Too bad, cause he really is the stuff. Bluegrass Cat is a complete mystery to me. In his last race, he threw a shoe and come home second. I have no idea on this one. Point Determined is the kind of horse I want to win, but he's a young one (born in May I think) so he's still running like a sixteen-year-old boy against twenty-year-olds. My guess that by July, he'll be winning everything. He just not quite grown up yet.

And that's all she wrote...at least for now.

posted by Headless-in-GR @ 4/11/2006 04:33:00 PM

 

Comments:

I'm voting for discrete cat. Cause that one has the bestest name!

# by:  spookyrach : 2:23 PM

 

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